{"apiVersion":"1.0","modelVersion":"conviction-v2","asOf":"2026-09-05T04:10:17.033Z","methodology":{"formula":"50 + Σ(strength × weight ÷ 2), clamped 0–100","liveFactorWeightCoveragePercent":100,"historicalProxyWeightCoveragePercent":35,"forwardHorizon":"1 day, normalized to the available candle interval","buckets":["0–39","40–60","61–100"]},"validation":[{"days":7,"buckets":[{"bucket":"0–39","observations":0,"hitRate":0,"averageMove":0,"medianMove":0,"probabilityUp":0,"falseSignalRate":0,"confidenceLow":0,"confidenceHigh":0},{"bucket":"40–60","observations":4,"hitRate":50,"averageMove":0.7279193630561426,"medianMove":-0.12558887519792394,"probabilityUp":25,"falseSignalRate":50,"confidenceLow":15.003570882017147,"confidenceHigh":84.99642911798286},{"bucket":"61–100","observations":0,"hitRate":0,"averageMove":0,"medianMove":0,"probabilityUp":0,"falseSignalRate":0,"confidenceLow":0,"confidenceHigh":0}]},{"days":30,"buckets":[{"bucket":"0–39","observations":0,"hitRate":0,"averageMove":0,"medianMove":0,"probabilityUp":0,"falseSignalRate":0,"confidenceLow":0,"confidenceHigh":0},{"bucket":"40–60","observations":27,"hitRate":62.96296296296296,"averageMove":0.7926650771563915,"medianMove":0.021494449291070694,"probabilityUp":51.85185185185185,"falseSignalRate":37.03703703703704,"confidenceLow":44.228904623446304,"confidenceHigh":78.46771293206314},{"bucket":"61–100","observations":0,"hitRate":0,"averageMove":0,"medianMove":0,"probabilityUp":0,"falseSignalRate":0,"confidenceLow":0,"confidenceHigh":0}]},{"days":90,"buckets":[{"bucket":"0–39","observations":0,"hitRate":0,"averageMove":0,"medianMove":0,"probabilityUp":0,"falseSignalRate":0,"confidenceLow":0,"confidenceHigh":0},{"bucket":"40–60","observations":87,"hitRate":63.2183908045977,"averageMove":0.3163784390567425,"medianMove":0.06917009698581555,"probabilityUp":52.87356321839081,"falseSignalRate":36.7816091954023,"confidenceLow":52.72733007011118,"confidenceHigh":72.59146660454009},{"bucket":"61–100","observations":0,"hitRate":0,"averageMove":0,"medianMove":0,"probabilityUp":0,"falseSignalRate":0,"confidenceLow":0,"confidenceHigh":0}]}],"source":"Coinbase Exchange daily candles · regional history fallback","sourceIntervalMs":86400000,"limitations":["Historical validation reconstructs trend and momentum only (35 of 100 live weight points).","It is a deterministic structure proxy, not an archived replay of the full seven-factor live model or unified tape.","Forward outcome windows are non-overlapping; lookback windows can still share history, and results exclude fees, slippage and execution delay.","Small samples are shown with Wilson confidence intervals and must not be treated as predictive guarantees."]}